Jim’s Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations were made this morning! Let the… well, let the wild speculation, grandstanding, and shameless campaigning begin.

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As we’ve discussed on the show, this is little more than a big old dog and pony show, but somehow I still give a damn about it.

I realize that there is as much politics behind each nomination and winner is there is merit and I’m fine with that because this is pretty much an office awards ceremony that gets televised.

I’m also going to skip over some of the short subjects for now as I haven’t seen and don’t really care about them.

Oh, and "The Town" got absolutely HOSED!! "True Grit" got director and picture nods BECAUSE IT'S A COEN BROTHERS MOVIE! That's it. To be clear, I am saying that "The Town" should have gotten the nominations over "True Grit."

OH, AND DO NOT GET ME STARTED ON THE NOLAN SCREW JOB! I SIMPLY CANNOT.... I JUST... DAMN IT!!

So, without further ado…

Best Documentary, Features

Nominees:

Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010): Banksy

GasLand (2010): Josh Fox

Inside Job (2010): Charles Ferguson

Restrepo (2010): Tim Hetherington, Sebastian Junger

Waste Land (2010): Lucy Walker

Prediction- Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010): Banksy

Personal- Exit Through the Gift Shop (2010): Banksy

First off, I’m a little surprised that “Waiting for Superman” was not on this. I’m not disappointed, just surprised. I’ll go into detail on this at another point, but I’m not as blown away by this film as you would think. Of these I’ve only seen one, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” and I am really pulling for it, and I think it’s going to win. Sadly, the years true best documentary,“Exporting Raymond,” wasn’t nominated.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland (2010)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010)

Hereafter (2010)

Inception (2010)

Iron Man 2 (2010)

Prediction- Inception (2010)

Personal- Inception (2010)

Special effects are a strange one. I hope that practical effects are rewarded this year and they don’t just hand another trophy out to a CGI nightmare. I’m pretty confident here though.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing Nominees:

Inception (2010)

Toy Story 3 (2010)

TRON: Legacy (2010)

True Grit (2010)

Unstoppable (2010)

Prediction- Inception (2010)

Personal- Inception (2010)

There are some interesting choices here. Sadly, I don’t really have enough knowledge about this yet to really know, so I’m going with my gut.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing Nominees:

Inception (2010)

The King's Speech (2010)

Salt (2010)

The Social Network (2010)

True Grit (2010)

Prediction- Inception (2010)

Personal- Inception (2010)

Ummm… Even though I do know the difference betweent he tow I am still not 100% sure why they are different categories, so I’m just repeating my prediction.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees:

127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman, Rollo Armstrong, Dido("If I Rise")

Country Strong (2010): Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges("Coming Home")

Tangled (2010): Alan Menken, Glenn Slater("I See the Light")

Toy Story 3 (2010): Randy Newman("We Belong Together")

Prediction- Toy Story 3 (2010): Randy Newman("We Belong Together")

Personal- Toy Story 3 (2010): Randy Newman("We Belong Together")

For some reason all of these songs annoy me. But at least Randy Newman wrote a song bagging on short people, so he has my vote.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score Nominees:

127 Hours (2010): A.R. Rahman

How to Train Your Dragon (2010): John Powell

Inception (2010): Hans Zimmer

The King's Speech (2010): Alexandre Desplat

The Social Network (2010): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Prediction- The Social Network (2010): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Personal- Inception (2010): Hans Zimmer or The Social Network (2010): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

This is a tough one because I absolutely love the two scores I picked and would be fine if either won, and a bit ticked if either lost. Inception was absolute perfection, but so was The Social Network. Total toss up, but I think this will be a night when The Social Network has a lot of pull.

Best Achievement in Makeup Nominees:

Barney's Version (2010)

The Way Back (2010)

The Wolfman (2010)

Prediction- The Wolfman (2010)

Personal- The Wolfman (2010)

I don’t care. At all. Not even a little. That being said, how can you vote against wolf man prosthetics?

Best Achievement in Costume Design Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Colleen Atwood

I Am Love (2009): Antonella Cannarozzi

The King's Speech (2010): Jenny Beavan

The Tempest (2010/II): Sandy Powell

True Grit (2010): Mary Zophres

Personal- The Tempest (2010/II): Sandy Powell

Prediction- The Tempest (2010/II): Sandy Powell

I care even less than before. That being said… no, still don’t care. Tempest looks flashy so… yeah.

Best Achievement in Art Direction Nominees:

Alice in Wonderland (2010): Robert Stromberg, Karen O'Hara

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan

Inception (2010): Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat

The King's Speech (2010): Eve Stewart, Judy Farr

True Grit (2010): Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh

Personal- Inception (2010): Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat

Prediction- Inception (2010): Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat

Yet more apathy from me here. Inception has a lot going on in this area, plus it’s amazing. So, I’m going with it here.

Best Achievement in Editing Nominees:

127 Hours (2010): Jon Harris

Black Swan (2010): Andrew Weisblum

The Fighter (2010): Pamela Martin

The King's Speech (2010): Tariq Anwar

The Social Network (2010): Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

Prediction- The Social Network (2010): Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

Personal- The Social Network (2010): Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

The editing is such an absolutely vital part of this. I know this is true for editing in all cases, but here it is integral to the way the narrative unfolds. It’s complex and original. I don’t see much of a contest here.

Best Achievement in Cinematography Nominees:

Black Swan (2010): Matthew Libatique

Inception (2010): Wally Pfister

The King's Speech (2010): Danny Cohen

The Social Network (2010): Jeff Cronenweth

True Grit (2010): Roger Deakins

Prediction- Black Swan (2010): Matthew Libatique

Personal- Black Swan (2010): Matthew Libatique

Although I love all the nominations, Black Swan has the most striking use of lighting. I know Inception and TSN and True Grit all look great, but Black Swan is absolutely intoxicating in its use of light. Pretty much a lock in my book.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year Nominees:

Biutiful (2010): Alejandro González Iñárritu(Mexico)

Dogtooth (2009): Giorgos Lanthimos(Greece)

In a Better World (2010): Susanne Bier(Denmark)

Incendies (2010): Denis Villeneuve(Canada)

Outside the Law (2010): Rachid Bouchareb(Algeria)

Prediction- Incendies (2010): Denis Villeneuve(Canada)

Personal- Incendies (2010): Denis Villeneuve(Canada)

Canada does not get enough love. I haven’t seen any of these, so I’m going with America’s Hat.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year Nominees:

How to Train Your Dragon (2010)

The Illusionist (2010)

Toy Story 3 (2010)

I’m not even going to waste my time on this one. I think the odds on this would be something like 1-20. Toy Story 3 takes this shit like Secretariat.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

127 Hours (2010): Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy

The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin

Toy Story 3 (2010): Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich

True Grit (2010): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Winter's Bone (2010): Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Prediction- The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin

Personal- The Social Network (2010): Aaron Sorkin

Again, no contest.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen Nominees:

Another Year (2010): Mike Leigh

The Fighter (2010): Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson

Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan

The Kids Are All Right (2010): Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg

The King's Speech (2010): David Seidler

Prediction- The King's Speech (2010): David Seidler

Personal- Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan

I would love nothing more than to see Inception win this, but I think it’s too successful, too much of a blockbuster. That seems like an odd reason to think it won’t win, but The Kings Speech has so much momentum and is such a small film that relies so much more on the writing, not that Inception doesn’t it’s just that Inception has so much more going on. It’ll be close, but I think The King’s Speech will take it.

Best Achievement in Directing Nominees:

Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan (2010)

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit (2010)

David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)

Tom Hooper for The King's Speech (2010)

David O. Russell for The Fighter (2010)

Prediction- David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)

Personal- David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)

There are some good nominations here and I wouldn’t be upset with any of them winning. That said, I think this is Fincher’s year.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees:

Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)

Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech (2010)

Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)

Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)

Prediction- Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)

Personal- Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)

I haven’t seen it, but from what I hear she absolutely dominates in this, so I am pulling for her. Also, this is the kind of role that seems to be built to win an award like this. OH, and Hailee Steinfeld IS NOT A SUPPORTING GOD DAMNED CHARACTER!! She is the lead. She is in every scene, everything that happens is because of her, and it IS HER STORY! I really hate shit like this!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees:

Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)

John Hawkes for Winter's Bone (2010)

Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)

Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)

Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech (2010)

Prediction- Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)

Personal- John Hawkes for Winter's Bone (2010)

I have always been a big fan of John Hawkes and I think Teardrop is his best performance. Hawkes has been a quiet and understated powerhouse since “From Dusk ‘Till Dawn” and I would love to see him get this. However, this is Bale’s year.  Also, I LOVED Renner in "The Town," but this is his second nomination in two years. He will win at least one in the future and may win this year, but I think that Bale has a lock.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role Nominees:

Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)

Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone (2010)

Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)

Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)

Prediction- Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)

Personal- Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone (2010)

This fits my best vs. most argument. Portman has a flashy role that she delivers very well and will win a disserved Oscar for it. However, Lawrence is so compelling in her performance, which is simple, subdued, and real. I would be fine with Portman, but Lawrence would really make me happy.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role Nominees:

Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)

Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)

Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)

Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)

James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)

Personal- Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)

Prediction- Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)

I don’t see much of a contest here. He should have won it last year, and will win again at some point. This year it’s all about handsomeness and talent. Well played Mr. Firth.

Best Motion Picture of the Year Nominees:

127 Hours (2010)

Black Swan (2010)

The Fighter (2010)

Inception (2010)

The Kids Are All Right (2010)

The King's Speech (2010)

The Social Network (2010)

Toy Story 3 (2010)

True Grit (2010)

Winter's Bone (2010)

Prediction- The Social Network (2010)

Personal- Inception (2010)

I really want Inception to win. I do. But it won’t. There is a chance for The King’s Speech. Between the 12 nominations and the Producers Guild award it’s got a shot, but I think that The Social Network will take it, and I’m good with that.

So, no big surprises here as usual. Should be an interesting year.



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