Jim’s Oscar Predictions 2012

It’s Oscar time again.

Some times, the Academy screws up. Hell, we did a show about it. This year... Well, this year they screwed up so bad that I might not even watch.

Ben Affleck not being nominated for Best Director for “Argo” is a joke. Period. I will expound more on this later, but I am stating up front that this years awards is kind of a sham for me because of this omission.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees:

Amour (2012)

Argo (2012)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)

Django Unchained (2012)

Les Misérables (2012)

Life of Pi (2012)

Lincoln (2012)

Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

So far, based on what I have seen, Argo and Lincoln are the front runners. Les Miserables is good, but it just doesn’t really land the way it should. The music isn’t what it should be. That being said, I also haven’t seen Zero Dark Thirty, so my opinion is incomplete. Were I to vote today, Argo wins, no question.

Pick- Argo

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln (2012)

Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables (2012)

Joaquin Phoenix for The Master (2012)

Denzel Washington for Flight (2012/I)

Daniel Day-Lewis can do no wrong. But even with my love for him, his performance in Lincoln is simply next level. Jackman was good, even though I don’t think his voice was right for Valjean, but that aside he still wasn’t Day-Lewis.

Pick- Day-Lewis

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Emmanuelle Riva for Amour (2012)

Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)

Naomi Watts for The Impossible (2012)

I haven’t seen anything in this category. But, Chastain has been such a fixture in nominated films that I could see her taking it.

Pick- Not enough information to make a choice.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Alan Arkin for Argo (2012)

Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master (2012)

Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln (2012)

Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained (2012)

Every one of these men has won an oscar already. How often does that happen? I’ve only seen three of these, and from what I understand the two I’ve missed have been pretty good. My call is, was, and ever will be Waltz, because he is the most naturalistic actor working today. I utterly believe him every second he is on screen. He is solid, consistent, and outstanding.

Pick- Waltz

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Amy Adams for The Master (2012)

Sally Field for Lincoln (2012)

Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables (2012)

Helen Hunt for The Sessions (2012)

Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

More with the Silver Linings Playbook? I guess it’s better than it looked to me. That said, I think Hathaway will take it. She was one of the two overwhelming strong points of Les Miserables, and I think she absolutely deserves it.

Pick- Hathaway

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees:

Michael Haneke for Amour (2012)

Ang Lee for Life of Pi (2012)

David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

Steven Spielberg for Lincoln (2012)

Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)

Fuck this award. Fuck everything about it. I don’t care who wins, because it will be an asterisk award. Ben Affleck’s direction of Argo was beyond amazing. The others are fine, but Affleck was able to wring unbelievable tension and urgency from a story you already knew the outcome of. That is worth something in my book. Some people will be upset about Tarantino not getting the nomination, but that doesn’t bother me too much. I liked Django, but I don’t think it’s the movie that should win Tarantino an Oscar, that was Pulp Fiction. We will have to wait for him to hit that level again for me to get pissed off about him not getting nominated.

Pick- Ben Affleck... but Spielberg will win

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees:

Amour (2012): Michael Haneke

Django Unchained (2012): Quentin Tarantino

Flight (2012/I): John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom (2012): Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty (2012): Mark Boal

I think it might be time for Wes Anderson to win one. Also, this would be the fourth Coppola to win an Oscar, so that’s pretty cool. But I haven’t seen it, so I can’t really say. I just have a gut feeling.

Pick- Moonrise Kingdom

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

Argo (2012): Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012): Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi (2012): David Magee

Lincoln (2012): Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook (2012): David O. Russell

This one is always a tough call. But, I think that between Argo and Lincoln, which to me are the clear front runners, Argo will take it. If you want a clinic on how to write a suspense film, just watch Argo.

Pick- Argo

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees:

Brave (2012)

Frankenweenie (2012)

ParaNorman (2012)

The Pirates! Band of Misfits (2012)

Wreck-It Ralph (2012)

Even though most people don’t love Brave as much as I do, I still see it as a front runner. However, of the two that I’ve seen, Wreck-It Ralph is the best. It’s fresh, funny, and completely original in execution. It reminded me of the first time I saw Toy Story in the way it created a new world for something I was very familiar with.

Pick- Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees:

Amour (2012): Michael Haneke(Austria)

War Witch (2012): Kim Nguyen(Canada)

No (2012/I): Pablo Larraín(Chile)

A Royal Affair (2012): Nikolaj Arcel(Denmark)

Kon-Tiki (2012): Joachim Rønning, Espen Sandberg(Norway)

Have not seen any, but one of these films is nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. That’s kind of a give away.

Pick- Amour

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Nominees:

Anna Karenina (2012/I): Seamus McGarvey

Django Unchained (2012): Robert Richardson

Life of Pi (2012): Claudio Miranda

Lincoln (2012): Janusz Kaminski

Skyfall (2012): Roger Deakins

I’ve seen three of these, and think they all look great. But the two I haven’t seen are custom made for an award like this. I really think Life of Pi takes this.

Pick- Life of Pi

Best Achievement in Editing

Nominees:

Argo (2012): William Goldenberg

Life of Pi (2012): Tim Squyres

Lincoln (2012): Michael Kahn

Silver Linings Playbook (2012): Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers

Zero Dark Thirty (2012): William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

Umm....

Pick- Argo

Best Achievement in Production Design

Nominees:

Anna Karenina (2012/I): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012): Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright

Les Misérables (2012): Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson

Life of Pi (2012): David Gropman, Anna Pinnock

Lincoln (2012): Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

Again, Anna Kerenina, and Life of Pi are the types of films that are designed for this type of award. The Hobbit might win, but it is just a retread of LOTR, so it’s not really a stand out.

Pick- Life of Pi

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees:

Anna Karenina (2012/I): Jacqueline Durran

Les Misérables (2012): Paco Delgado

Lincoln (2012): Joanna Johnston

Mirror Mirror (2012/I): Eiko Ishioka

Snow White and the Huntsman (2012): Colleen Atwood

Speaking of buttholes, I just wish that woman who casually slipped in how many of these she had won already was nominated again. Hell, she might be. I have no idea. But a costume drama, period piece will win this.

Pick- One of the costume drama period pieces.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Nominees:

Hitchcock (2012)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)

Les Misérables (2012)

Umm...

Pick- the Hobbit?

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Nominees:

Anna Karenina (2012/I): Dario Marianelli

Argo (2012): Alexandre Desplat

Life of Pi (2012): Mychael Danna

Lincoln (2012): John Williams

Skyfall (2012): Thomas Newman

Hard to say. No music really stood out to me this year. So...

Pick- John Williams?

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Nominees:

Chasing Ice (2012): J. Ralph("Before My Time")

Les Misérables (2012): Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer("Suddenly")

Life of Pi (2012): Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree("Pi's Lullaby")

Skyfall (2012): Adele, Paul Epworth("Skyfall")

Ted (2012): Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")

I really wish the Thunder Buddys Song was up for this. But, Les Miserables is pulling an “Evita,” so figure that for the win.

Pick- Les Miserables

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Nominees:

Argo (2012)

Les Misérables (2012)

Life of Pi (2012)

Lincoln (2012)

Skyfall (2012)

Ummm...

Pick- Les Miserables

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Nominees:

Argo (2012)

Django Unchained (2012)

Life of Pi (2012)

Skyfall (2012)

Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

Ummm...

Pick- Argo?

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Nominees:

The Avengers (2012)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)

Life of Pi (2012)

Prometheus (2012/I)

Snow White and the Huntsman (2012)

None of these did anything that really blew me away, but Prometheus seemed to have the big scale shit these people love, so... that.

Pick- Prometheus

Best Documentary, Features

Nominees:

5 Broken Cameras (2011)

The Gatekeepers (2012)

How to Survive a Plague (2012)

The Invisible War (2012)

Searching for Sugar Man (2012)

I haven’t seen any of these, so I can’t even hazard a guess.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Nominees:

Inocente (2012)

Kings Point (2012)

Mondays at Racine (2012)

Open Heart (2013)

Redemption (2012/V)

Again, can’t even guess.

Best Short Film, Animated

Nominees:

Adam and Dog (2011): Minkyu Lee

Fresh Guacamole (2012): PES

Head Over Heels (2012): Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly

Paperman (2012): John Kahrs

The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare (2012): David Silverman

Can’t even guess, but since the Drafthouse will have a screening I will pick after I see them. But for now...The Simpsons? Yeah, probably that.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Nominees:

Asad (2012): Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura

Buzkashi Boys (2012): Sam French, Ariel Nasr

Curfew (2012/I): Shawn Christensen

Death of a Shadow (2012): Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele

Henry (2011/III): Yan England

Again, can’t even guess. Will pick when I’ve seen them at the Drafthouse this year.



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